Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-28 0.326499 0.370363 0.417969 0.473481 0.536450 0.605681 0.687599
2025-10-05 0.270361 0.330284 0.400267 0.488075 0.595384 0.722374 0.884259
2025-10-12 0.221292 0.288987 0.373442 0.486645 0.634616 0.821773 1.077016
2025-10-19 0.186213 0.258620 0.354633 0.491438 0.681758 0.937794 1.309566
2025-10-26 0.161201 0.237063 0.343522 0.504097 0.740840 1.078192 1.597599
2025-11-02 0.133146 0.206470 0.314914 0.487363 0.755717 1.159138 1.815141
2025-11-09 0.109097 0.177739 0.284350 0.462453 0.753931 1.214592 2.002956
2025-11-16 0.093009 0.158717 0.265569 0.452547 0.773414 1.304979 2.259630
2025-11-23 0.079628 0.141925 0.247697 0.441035 0.787960 1.388767 2.517971
2025-11-30 0.072023 0.133785 0.243032 0.451179 0.840881 1.544887 2.926692
2025-12-07 0.061862 0.119448 0.225298 0.434980 0.843539 1.611508 3.181660
2025-12-14 0.054557 0.109301 0.213676 0.428255 0.862581 1.710527 3.513175
2025-12-21 0.047772 0.099361 0.201443 0.419388 0.877953 1.808461 3.866911
2025-12-28 0.044243 0.095436 0.200467 0.433112 0.941453 2.012552 4.475901
2026-01-04 0.039788 0.088879 0.193152 0.432426 0.974575 2.159023 4.986856
2026-01-11 0.036345 0.083981 0.188621 0.437101 1.020282 2.339926 5.607105
2026-01-18 0.033815 0.080740 0.187230 0.448656 1.083564 2.570160 6.383118
2026-01-25 0.029791 0.073384 0.175429 0.433996 1.082746 2.651994 6.814989
2026-02-01 0.025849 0.065612 0.161502 0.411985 1.060462 2.678965 7.114475
2026-02-08 0.023176 0.060572 0.153416 0.403273 1.070266 2.786815 7.643223
2026-02-15 0.020750 0.055789 0.145264 0.393097 1.074640 2.881554 8.154047
2026-02-22 0.019520 0.053969 0.144415 0.402180 1.132163 3.125247 9.121636
2026-03-01 0.017377 0.049338 0.135498 0.387793 1.122540 3.185584 9.576073